Happy Holidays
Hope everyone is having a beautiful and relaxing holiday season
By Johan
Professor of Behavioral Economics & Applied Cognitive Theory
Former Foreign Service Officer
I’m a little behind on Part 2.
Between family, travel, and the usual end-of-year chaos, the writing took longer than planned. Part 2 of The World Ahead 2026 drops early January.
But that’s fine. The analysis isn’t going anywhere. The trajectories are still locked in. And honestly, you probably need a break from geopolitical doom anyway.
So here’s something lighter: a shot I took recently that captures what I’m thinking about as we close out 2025.
Notice the architecture…concentric rings drawing your eye toward light and open space. Structure and flow. Containment and possibility. The warm interior giving way to cool daylight beyond.
That’s the cognitive shift we need going into 2026: holding the structure (the behavioral mechanics, the incentive systems, the patterns we’ve mapped) while staying oriented toward the light…toward what’s still possible, still worth building, still under our control.
The world is reorganizing. American reliability has collapsed. Allies are scrambling. Authoritarianism is accelerating. We covered all that in Part 1.
But none of that means we’re powerless. It just means the old maps don’t work anymore.
Part 2 will map where the major powers actually stand, what their behavioral incentives reveal, and who’s positioned for what’s coming. It’s worth the wait.
Until then: happy holidays. Rest if you can. Spend time with people who matter. Disconnect from the noise.
The work continues in January; just a few days away!
See you in the new year.
Why the Snail
It carries its home.
It moves with intention.
It leaves a trail.
So do I.
Johan is a behavioral scientist and former Foreign Service Officer. He writes about power, belief systems, and how humans make sense of collapse. Subscribe for essays on what happens when the maps no longer match the territory.
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Happy new year to you!
Johan, I love reading your articles. You have a remarkable ability to unpack current issues through the lens of human behavior and economics incentives. I also really appreciate the artistry of your photography, it adds a beautiful, thoughtful dimension to every post! Can’t wait to read more of your work in 2026!